Evaluation of General Circulation Models CMIP6 Performance and Future Climate Change over the Omo River Basin, Ethiopia

Autor: Tolera Abdissa Feyissa , Tamene Adugna Demissie, Fokke Saathoff and Alemayehu Gebissa
In:

MDPI, Sustainability 2023, 15, 6507

DOI: https//doi.org/ 10.3390/su15086507
Seite: 1 - 37
Jahr: 2023

Einordung:
Institut: Professur Geotechnik und Küstenwasserbau

Abstract:
One of the world’s major issues is climate change, which has a significant impact on ecosystems,
human beings, agricultural productivity, water resources, and environmental management. The
General Circulation Models (GCMs), specially the recently released (coupled model intercomparison
project six) CMIP6 are very indispensable to understand and support decision makers to identify
adaptation strategies in response to future climate change in a basin. However, proper selection of
skillful GCMs and future climate assessment is a prior task to climate impact studies. The objective
of the study is an attempt to appraise the climate model’s performance and future climate scenarios
of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) in the Omo River Basin. The performance evaluation of
20 GCMs of the CMIP6 was properly performed to reproduce the precipitation and the maximum
temperature in the basin. Their performance has been carried out against the best selected mean
monthly Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) precipitation and
European Community MediumWater RangeWeather Forecasts Version 5 (ECMWF-ERA5) maximum
temperature. The GCMs of the CMIP6 were selected and ranked using the compromise programming
method of multi-criteria decision making. The result shows that ensemble models and NorESM2-MM
models have been designated to reproduce the precipitation and maximum temperature in the basin
respectively. The Mann–Kendall trend test was executed to appraise the trend of selected CMIP6
models, and subsequently, downscaling and bias correction techniques were conducted. The projected
seasonal precipitation of June, July, August, September (JJAS) and March, April, May (MAM)
shows an increasing trend with 10.86, 17.66, 38.96 and 11.85, 22.1, and 40.7% under SSP2452031-2060,
SSP5852031-2060, and SSP5852071-2100 scenarios respectively. Furthermore, increasing trends were
detected in MAM by 12.8% and decreasing trends in JJAS were detected by 15.23% under SSP2452071-
2100 scenario. The maximum temperature projection will be increased on average by 0.95, 1.78, 1.4,
and 3.88 C in JJAS and 1.53, 2.24, 1.56, and 3.89 C in MAM under climate change scenarios of
near-future SSP2452031-2060, SSP5852031-2060, far-future SSP2452071-2100, and SSP5852071-2100,
respectively. Additionally, the basin has shown temporal-spatial climate fluctuation in terms of
precipitation and maximum temperature.
Keywords: climate projection; CMIP6 performance; compromise programming; Omo River Basin;
precipitation; temperature

Ansprechpartner

Weitere Information im WWW

Zur Publikation: Mitarbeiter, Projekte
Weitere Publikationen im Forschungsteilschwerpunkt