Selection of Representative General Circulation Models for Climate Change Study Using Advanced Envelope-Based and Past Performance Approach on Transboundary River Basin, a Case of Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Autor: Hailu Wondmageghu Tenfie , Fokke Saathoff , Dereje Hailu and Alemayehu Gebissa
In:

Sustainability, MDPI

Auflage: Februar
ISBN: 2071-1050
DOI: doi.org/10.3390/ su14042140
Seite: 1 - 18
Jahr: 2022

Einordung:
Institut: Professur Geotechnik und Küstenwasserbau

Abstract:
For the selection of global climate models in the upper basin of the Blue Nile, an advanced
envelope-based approach was used. Currently, the number of general circulations models (GCM)
has increased extremely. The reliability of any general circulation model in a particular region is
confronted, so the selection of the appropriate climate models that can predict the climate variable
is essential. Representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were taken into account.
For RCP4.5 105 GCMs were used and for RCP8.5 78 GCMs were used to select the best performance
models for the Upper Blue Nile Basin for a climate change impact study. Three steps were followed
to derive the best performing models in the study area based on their range of projected mean
temperature and precipitation changes, the range of projected extreme changes, and the ability to
reproduce past climates between 1971 and 2000 and 2071–2100. Five corners of the spectrum were
used, e.g., wet-warm, wet-cold, dry-warm, dry-cold, and the 50th percentile of the temperatures.
For RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, a total of 25 GCMs were chosen based on the range of anticipated mean
temperature and rainfall change. Based on the range of extreme changes, 10 GCMs were chosen.
Finally, for each RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, five GCMs were chosen by combining all three stages.
Keywords: climate change; GCM; CMIP5; climate model selection; Upper Blue Nile River Basin

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