Determination of the hydrodynamic design parameters water level and wave height using Copula models for the design of coastal protection structures on the Baltic Sea of Germany

Autor: Kaehler, C.; Saathoff, F.
In:

21st International Probabilistic Workshop
Proceedings in Civil Engineering
Ort: Rostock
Verlag: Wiley / Ernst & Sohn
Ergaenzung: Vol. 8, Issue 3-4
ISBN: 2509-7075
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/cepa.3359
Seite: 41 - 50
Jahr: 2025

Einordung:
Institut: Professur Geotechnik und Küstenwasserbau

Abstract:
The design of coastal protection structures requires design parameters that accu-rately represent the hydrodynamic conditions along the coast. Currently, these inputvariables are based on univariate probability models, which do not take into accountthe joint probability of water levels and waves. Bivariate modeling of the probabilitywith Copula models offers an alternative.Copulas can be used to describe the non-linear dependencies between water leveland wave height and to calculate joint probabilities of occurrence. However, theapplication of this methodology places greater demands on the underlying data. Asthe data available in the study area does not meet the requirements, statisticalmethods are used to generate the data. First, various Copulas are adapted to phys-ically consistent combinations of water level and wave height extracted from stormsurge events and validated. Next, the Copulas are used to calculate design waterlevels and wave heights for selected return intervals. The bivariate design parame-ters are compared with the univariate ones in a simplified design example for waverun-up on a dike.The validation of various models shows that the Frank Copula best describes thedependency structure. The bivariate parameter heights determined with the samereturn intervals are lower than the parameters determined with the univariatemethod. The available data only allow a limited application of the Copulas for designissues in the study area. Nevertheless, Copulas have the potential to replace theunivariate methods for determining the design parameters.

Ansprechpartner

Weitere Information im WWW

Zur Publikation: Mitarbeiter, Projekte
Weitere Publikationen im Forschungsteilschwerpunkt